ALONG THE WEST COAST THERE ARE AT LEAST 3 TO 4 SURGES COMING INTO THE WEST COAST IN THE FAST PACIFIC FLOW THIS PERIOD EACH WITH ROUNDS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW TO COME IN AROUND AT-SUN..MON..TUES AND ANOTHER THURS-FRI WITH MORE TO FOLLOW. MONDAYS SURGE HITS THE ENTIRE COAST FROM VANCOUVER SOUTH TO PT CONCEPTION BUT THEN AS THE HEIGHTS FALL AND THE JET CORE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD THE TARGET AREA WILL BE MORE INTO CENTRAL CA AND SOUTHERN CA TUESDAY ONWARD.
THIS EVENT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO APPROACH OR RIVAL THE JANUARY/FEBRUARY 1998 EL NINO EVENT IN CENTRAL CA AND THE JANUARY 1995 TIME FRAME FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. QPF TOTALS FROM MODEL GUIDANCE ARE VERY HIGH WITH AN OVERALL RANGE OF 7- 12 LIQUID INCHES DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD OVER COASTAL REGIONS/SIERRA. EXPECT CONSIDERABLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER A MULTIDAY PERIOD WITH 10-20 INCH MOUNTAIN AMOUNTS WITH EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER FAVORABLE TERRAIN. SIERRA MOUNTAIN SNOWS MAY BE IN THE 8-12 FOOT RANGE. AS THE JET CORE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHERE SIMILAR RAINFALL NUMBERS MAYBE OVER ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE TERRAIN. SOME LOCAL FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS WILL MOST LIKELY APPROACH "20" INCH LIQUID AMOUNTS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE EVENT "CONTINUING PAST OUR 7 DAY RANGE", YIELDING EVEN HIGHER TOTALS. VERY HEAVY SNOWS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND A FLOODING/MUDSLIDE PROBLEMS APPEAR LIKELY. A HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR ARIZONA APPEARS IN STORE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
I know this will result in catastrophic footage of million dollar homes sliding into the ocean, people unable to drive home, lives changed.....yada, yada, yada.....whatever. For me this means snow...and lots of it here in AZ. I had the pleasure of working as a ski instructor at Mt. Lemmon north of Tucson for the 98 El Nino. We received 4 feet of snow in one 48 hr period. It started raining a, "Forest Gump in Nam" style rain in late January and did not let up for an entire month. The Rillito ran in a major way for 3 months straight....and I'm not talking a rivulet...I'm talking standing waves within a river, plowing through Tucson. I got so sick and tired of skiing, that I called in sick to work at the mountain....so I could go.....wait for it.....hiking, instead of skiing! That's some serious snow time to make me do that!
Giddy-up folks...it's time to sharpen those avy avoidance skills, get your wet ski wax on and have some fun.
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